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March 6, 2023
JAKARTA “There is good reason to believe that newly appointed Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang will surprise his ASEAN colleagues by instructing Chinese negotiators to make significant progress at this week's meeting in Jakarta on the Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea. . But ASEAN must realize that the agreement reached by both sides in 2002 can no longer serve as a basis for negotiations.
During his visit to Jakarta on Feb. 22, Qin quickly followed through on a promise he made to Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi to expedite talks with ASEAN on the KP, which came to nothing as the two sides agreed to start talks just over two hours ago. decades ago.
On March 8-10, Indonesia will host a key meeting that will bring together senior officials from 10 ASEAN member states and China.
The conclusion of the KP is a major item on the agenda of Indonesia's ASEAN Presidency in 2023, in addition to resolving the protracted crisis in Myanmar, where the military junta continues to ignore international condemnation of its brutality against civilians.
The Code of Conduct is provided for by the Declaration of Conduct (DoC) agreed upon by the leaders of ASEAN and China at the ASEAN Summit in 2002.
A 2002 joint statement stated that China and ASEAN "reaffirm their commitment to the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the Southeast Asia Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation."
Both sides also "reaffirm their respect for and commitment to freedom of navigation and overflight of the South China Sea, as provided for by the universally recognized principles of international law" and "to resolve their territorial and jurisdictional disputes by peaceful means, without resort to the threat or use of force, through friendly consultations." and negotiations of directly concerned sovereign states”.
But the spirit of the 2002 agreement is fading as China appears to have lost its appetite, especially after a UN body refused to recognize China's so-called nine-point line in 2016. With this announcement, China claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, one of the world's busiest areas for commercial shipping.
Significant progress is expected from the Jakarta meeting, although the KP is not binding. At the very least, we hope the code will reaffirm "freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful settlement of disputes, and restraint in doing business" in the South China Sea.
With this new round of talks, China will have a formal forum to discuss the maritime zone dispute with ASEAN as China clashes with the "rest of the world" in its quest to consolidate its power in the South China Sea.
Tensions are rising and are likely to escalate the arms race as China's policies intensify the involvement of major powers, most recently reflected in the Philippines' intention to expand military cooperation with the US, Japan and Australia, among other countries. "outsiders".
In a joint press conference with Minister Retno, Qin promised to work with Southeast Asia as tensions rise in disputed waters.
“Both China and Indonesia will work with other ASEAN countries to fully and effectively implement the DoC. [Declaration of Conduct] speed up KP consultations to jointly protect peace and stability in the South China Sea,” Qin said after meeting with Retno.
“[A] A new cold war and great power rivalry must not arise in the Asia-Pacific region. We trust that Indonesia and ASEAN will make their decision and make their choice independently and autonomously,” he added.
The Philippines is negotiating the possible inclusion of Australia and Japan in a planned joint patrol with the US in the South China Sea, another sign of Manila's concern about Beijing's actions in strategic waters. When this happens, it will be the first multilateral maritime patrol in the maritime zone, which will draw the wrath of China.
Last month, Reuters reported that Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who hosted him, agreed to expand defense cooperation between the two countries by giving Japanese troops greater access to the Philippines, including for response exercises. for natural disasters and humanitarian needs in the Philippines.
Manila signed a similar treaty with Washington.
Kishida and Marcos also agreed to strengthen cooperation in the field of economics and cybersecurity. Kishida also confirmed that Japan continues to assist the Philippine Coast Guard in strengthening its capabilities, including improving port facilities at Subic Bay, a former US naval base.
There are reports that the Philippines is also being lured into joining the Quad, an informal strategic dialogue that includes the US, Japan, India and Australia. AUKUS, a security agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, is another multilateral alliance that has openly stated its intention to be more active in the South China Sea. Obviously, the main goal of Quad and AUKUS is to contain China.
China also has unfinished business with Indonesia over the South China Sea. The UN recognizes Indonesia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in waters off Natuna, which crosses China's nine-point line. China says its fishermen have been visiting these waters as their fishing grounds for centuries.
On another occasion in December 2021, China demanded that Indonesia stop drilling for oil and gas in waters it claims were in Indonesia's EEZ.
Both ASEAN and China need the KP to help ease tensions not only between the two sides, but also between China and the rest of the world. At the very least, ASEAN is a partner that China can trust, as evidenced by their long and mutually beneficial partnership.
The ability of China and ASEAN to achieve the long-awaited POS for South China will become the basic norm of behavior in the region.
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The writer is a senior editor at Jakarta Post.
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